Afghanistan,a failed nation,after the pullout of American and NATO forces in 2014 and Pakistan which is on the brink of a civil war among Pakistan army,Pakistan government and islamic jihadis and Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA) will become a threat to India and the whole of central Asia.Afghan taliban alongwith Al-qaeda and Pakistani taliban are at loggerheads with corrupt pak government and are having tacit support of ISI and looking out for the control of nuclear arsenal which are in plenty(about 100 nuclear Bombs).
Pakistan’s record of governing post-independence is pathetic.Out of 64 years,33 years Pak army has ruled over it and that too after throwing out the democratically elected governments.Mohammed Ali Jinnah’s dream nation was a secular democratic republic but there was another section in pakistan who was interested in making it a Islamic nation and Maulana Maududi was its leader.Till today this tussle between secularists and jihadis is going on and India is their common enemy.Today Pakistan is on the brink,socially as well as economically.China and India have made good progress economically during last 20 years but pakistan chose to train jihadis in 100s of camps and using them to spread terror in cities of India.LeT,Jamat-uddawa,Hizbul-Mujahidin and several such outfits have grown in Pak with the tacit support of ISI and during terror attack in Mumbai,their involvement was proved internationally but still pakistan is in a denial mode.Hafiz Saeed,the mastermind behind the Mumbai attacks was released after a few days token house arrest.
Pakistan refers to Kashmir as the reason behind tension between the two countries.But the jihadis trained in tribal areas have killed thousands of pakistanis and they have problems with all non-muslims,shias,ahmedias and so on and so forth.So it seems that jihadis want to control entire Pakistan and impose their sharia over it.They dont trust government,army and they want complete talibanisation.America and India are their enemy.So Pakistan is suffering from an internal war and to blame it on kashmir is just a distraction.Terror and bomb attacks inside Pakistan are much more than in Kashmir or any other Indian city.
Bogey of Kashmir by Pakistan is just diverting the attention from real danger of Afghan taliban,Al-qaeda and pak taliban which are a threat to its internal security as well as a threat to India,China and other countries of central Asia.There is no industrial development in Pakistan from last 60 years and its islamic jihadists have a single point agenda of waging a war against the world.what will happen once American and NATO forces leave Afghanistan is not clear at all.Therefore it is a matter of serious concern for India specially when AfPak taliban and tribals consider India their enemy.These tribals invaded Kashmir during independence and occupied a part of it which is known today as POK(Pak Occupied Kashmir).This is an illegally occupied territory and why India should have allowed this illegal occupation is not clear at all.
wiki-Leaks has released thousands of classified documents on internet which expose ISI’s direct involvement with Afghan taliban,Alqaeda.Pak army’s counterinsurgency measures in Swat valley and constant refusal to enter north vaziristan,the headquarters of Jalaluddin Haqqani and his sons,creates serious doubts about Pak intentions to fight taliban and help America in fighting terror in the region.Pakistan Army is playing a double game of allowing America to kill terrorists and civilians with Drone strikes in exchange of billions of dollars and at the same time help Afghan and pak taliban alongwith al-qaeda to strengthen them in Vaziristan to use them for terror activities against India.
So now the billion dollar question is what will happen to Pakistan when America stops 4billion dollars annual aid and its forces alonwith NATO leave Afghanistan in 2014?To Pak’s geostrategic location,to its vast population,to its vast nuclear arsenal,to its defunct economy,to hundreds of terror camps in vaziristan and its problem ridden Sind and Baluchistan only time will tell.In the name of national security they have only anti-India preparedness and no other economic reforms.Unemployment,lack of funds due to no new revenue earning, no tax reforms,there are chances of total failure and civil war.In that situation the neighbours of Pakistan specially India will have to be watchful and concerned about security threat to its borders.